[Pil-pc-oceania] How long before the depression will occur?

[RussGrayson]

Hi Fern...

On 25/11/07 12:48 AM, "permaculture at apollobay.org.au"
<permaculture at apollobay.org.au> wrote:

> I'm feeling that it won't be long before our society goes into a depression.
> I'm feeling that it's going to be quite rapid. Perhaps before new year?  What
> does everyone think? Mirroring 1929, but this time with energy descent.

Energy descent will have no effect before new year. It is a longer-term
possibility. The current high prices of a barrel of oil on the global market
is most likely due to:

1. The increasing demand for oil from the fast-developing economies of China
and India. This will increase over time and, assuming the peak oil scanario
plays out as imagined, will add to the forces increasing the price per
barrel.

2. Political instability in the Middle East  - the war in Iraq, especially.

3. Uncertainty over US intentions toward Iran.

The situation would be further exacerbated were political instability to
threaten the Saudi regime. The US is supportive of the regime although there
is criticism of it in US foreign policy circles. The regime appears stable,
but so did the Berlin Wall in early 1989. Regimes often appear their
strongest just prior to their collapse, someone observed (like the Howard
regime?). 

There is internal resentment of the Saudi regime as well as pressure on it
from militant Islamic fundamentalist sources. They have publicly stated that
the toppling of the regime is high on their agenda. Their ascendency
certainly could throw the Western economies into oil crisis mode as could
any substantial assault by them on the core nodes of the country's oil
industry, such as by the use of a radiological weapon (conventional bomb
that distributes radiocative material - a far more accessible weapon than
building a nuclear fission of fusion bomb).

A further source of oil crisis would be pressure on the Iranian regime in
the event of even a limited US military strike on its nuclear
weapons/research facilities. Factor an Isreali strike, using conventional
weapons, on Iranian nuclear installations into this too, and recall Israel's
willingness to take such action in the form of its 1984 airstrike on Iraq's
reactor, to prevent the Iraqi regime acquiring nuclear weapons. I'm sure
Israel has considered this and perhaps it has been Washington that has
constrained them. 

Remember, however, that we faced a political crisis that turned off the oil
spiggots to the West in 1973 (due to Western support for Israel in the Yom
Kipppur war).

NEW RESERVES?
Energy descent manifesting as oil price rises due to demand exceeding supply
is a longer-term phenomenon than these shorter-term political causes of oil
price rises due to regional instability.

Within the shorter term, there may be discoveries of substantial reserves
below the Arctic Ocean. This possibility may be an explanation for the
recent Russian annexation of the seabed between Russia and the northern
polar region. Canada has laid a similar claim to the region on its northern
borders. It is probably more than coincidental that the claims come as the
northern polar ice is starting to break up, presumably due to sea surface
temperature rise attributable to climate change, thus making drilling more
economical. There may also be new fields discovered in Siberia.

If peak oil develops as per the commonly accepted scenario, then these new
fields will delay it rather than remove its possibility. Into our thinking,
we need to factor accessing deeper-laying reserves, thus spinning out the
global oil supply. The price per barrel from these resources would be
greater than for current reserves (assuming no technological solutions are
developed to reduce extraction costs).

APPEARING REASONABLE TO COMMUNICATE OUR MESSAGE EFFECTIVELY
We cannot dismiss the possibility of technological solutions to peak oil,
although there appear to be few of these on offer over the short term.

In discussing peak oil with the public, we have to appear reasonable if we
are to be regarded as credible and not alarmist or doomsday merchants (these
are unneeded barriers that reduce our credibility and our capacity to
influence the public). That means not excluding the possibility of the
development of short term solutions coming, perhaps, from basic research or
from other areas rather than from the further development of existing oil
extraction technologies.

What might lead to error is imagining that the future is merely an
extrapolation of present trends. Granted, those trends are all we have from
which to develop sceniarios, however we must remain open to the unexpected.
Peak oil as we presently imagine its development is an extrapolation of
present trends. It might be probable, but telling people that a particular
future is certain has been proven an approach laden with error.

The 1973 oil crisis and rationing brought, in Australia, a disciplined
response - not the arguments and occasional punch-ups in the vehicle lines
waiting at bowsers in the US.

This is not to downplay peak-oil-as-anticipated, just to suggest we remain
open to unexpected developments and the impact of political developments and
their impact on oil supply.
 
> I don't feel that I'm prepared enough as yet, I've got so much to do... but am
> trying to "make hay while the sun shines".  And I certainly haven't prepared
> my community enough...

Fern, I'm picking up this theme of despair running through your letter. How
can you prepare your community? Why is it your responsibility? Do you have
any capacity to do that? Can you really do it via yourself-as-catalyst? Is
the concept a top-down model?

I suggest you cannot change any community until that community is ready to
change.

If you look at what are probably the most constructive peak oil-inspired
models of community-based action - the Totnes relocalisation process and the
Kinsdale Energy Descent Plan - you find a longer-term, deliberative model
that has both affinity with and precedent within permaculture ideas of late
last century. Because they are deliberative and participatory, they take
time but they are more likely to be acted upon because they become the
collective property of those that develop and adopt them. A lot of talk must
precede action or we are likely to end up with yet another top-down model.

> although the community of  Apollo Bay has been isolated
> and self-reliant in the past,

The past is history. The furture is a story. Today is a gift.

> we are really needing to gather our resources and skills together, and not be
> so outwardly focused... so many more community projects to get going... so
> many challenges ahead...

It takes a clear and present threat to galvanise community cooperation and
action. Don't expect too much too soon. Spend time educating those already
supportive. Train trainers, cadres (to borrow a term from the old, old Left
-  what does the Right call its activists?), educate and advocate. Be
patient - or suffer activist burnout, a well-established malady of the
politcally and otherwise active.

> I'm a little disappointed in myself for not having done enough to be prepared/
> ready enough for this... especially since I've known about this for all of my
> 30 years of life.

You've known about peak oil for 30 years?

Sounds like you're turning your disappointment onto yourself. That way lies
discouragement and anger.

...Russ